Thursday, February 21, 2013

PBS Digital Studios did this video using a scientific method to calculate the odds of finding love...

And they’ve scientifically proven it’s darn hard!

Click the above image for the video.

What I’d like to point out, though, is that their conclusion was there are 871 people in New York City who would meet the criteria for Ann. However, I think it requires a different approach in that you really only find out if the person is the right person for you if you have a chance to meet them and talk to them. How many distinct people meet that criteria per day? Let’s say 20 per day? That is, you may meet more than 20 per day, let’s say 40-50, but the next day, they are many of the same people. Of course, if she’s outgoing, then the odds increase because rather than just getting a chance to talk with them, if she finds someone who is attractive, then she may take the initiative to talk to that person. But let’s say she’s not that outgoing, so it’s 20 per day. In a non-leap year, that’s 7300 people per year. Using their formula, that’s 0.077 people per year who meet Ann’s criteria. That means, the odds are that it will take 13 years to meet just 1 person who meet the criteria. (OK, it’s been a long time since my probabilities class, so it is rusty, but I think that’s close enough.) If she meets fewer than 7300 distinct people per year, the odds are a lot worse! No wonder true love seems so elusive! And now it’s scientifically proven!

Also, I wonder what eating chocolate has to do with all of this. He could of at least offered to share.
Of course, you can increase your odds by changing your criteria. If you don’t worry about the attractiveness part or the education part or even the age part, but just whether she’s naked and brought beer, then your odds may go way up!

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